Chances of eruption increase as seismic activity drags on

The longer that the seismic activity under Bárðarbunga goes on, the greater the risk of an eruption, according to Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, geophysicist and Professor at the University of Iceland. The authorities are acting on two key phrases: There are no signs of the magma reaching the surface, and that the seismic activity is still very powerful.

Scientists differ on how to interpret several large quakes from Thursday that originated in the center of the Bárðarbunga caldera. While some scientists claim that this means that the pressure is lowering, others claim the exact opposite.

Scientists met today at the Institution of Earth Sciences in Iceland to compare notes and try to determine the chances of an eruption.

"It's still likely to end in an eruption, and those odds haven't lowered in any way," states Magnús Tumi. "The longer that this takes place, the greater the chances of something happening. But I don't think that the odds are favoring an eruption, but then again it's all guesswork," he adds.

Scientists believe they have a rough idea about what's been happening under Vatnajökull glacier for the past week, that magma is flowing from under the Bárðarbunga caldera to the northeast towards Dyngjujökull glacier, where the magma is forming a 25 kilometer long underground cavern at a depth of 5 to 10 kilometers. Looking at the 3D model that the The Icelandic Meteorological Office has constructed of the seismic events, one can see the cavern's location.

Scientists disagree on how to interpret large quakes that took place in the Bárðarbunga caldera last night and this morning.

Kristín Vogfjörð, research director for the Icelandic Meteorological Office, claims that according to GPS data the pressure in the caldera is lowering.

But Ingi Þorleifur Bjarnason, seismologist and geophysicist at the Institution of Earth Sciences, interprets the quakes differently: That the pressure is increasing and the mountain is rising, more magma is entering the caldera.